Vodkapundit - Zone Defense

Zone Defense

Posted by Will Collier · 16 February 2004

A couple of thoughts on getting out of your zone.

I live in Bush country (insert Steve's inevitable joke here). While Atlanta is as cosmopolitan as any Southern city gets, complete with a liberal-lurching local editorial page, an outright leftist alt-weekly, and a sizeable number of yards with "War Is Not The Answer" signs, John Kerry has about as much chance of carrying Georgia as I do of being selected Miss America. With the possible exceptions of Louisana and Kentucky--and I would call the Dems' odds there very slim--the same goes for the entire South. From that perspective, it's been a bit difficult to take seriously the last month's wave of doom and gloom (or joy and celebration, depending on where you stand) regarding Bush's reelection chances.

Then I went to New York City last weekend. Whoa, Nellie.

If you're a "Red stater" and haven't spent any time in "Blue" country lately, you might owe it to yourself to take a trip and listen carefully. Actually, you don't have to listen all that carefully, since the invective is flowing hot and heavy. Swap the name "Bush" for "Clinton," and you could just as easily be in Birmingham or Dallas circa 1994. "Hate" might be too mild of a term to describe the feelings I was hearing in NYC at one random stop after another (and that doesn't even count the priest I overheard in Schenectady--no kidding). There wasn't always (or even often) a lot of logic or accuracy in the myriad charges and accusations making the rounds, but there's no denying the intensity of the antipathy roiling around up there.

Does any of the above mean Bush is a sure loser in November? Not remotely. New York is one of the most reliably Democratic cities in the nation, and it's hardly surprising to hear a Republican president getting a Bronx cheer in that part of the country. Clinton was no less despised in the South when he ran for reelection, and he still won that race handily. But the GOP braintrust had better have their numbers crunched and their ground game in place for those states where the margins are slim. If they think they're going to make any headway in the "dark blue" states, they're kidding themselves.

Comments

Where'd you go, the village?

I've heard a decidedly different tune in my neck of the woods, which admittedly is the considerably more sane east side.

I know a few FDNY and NYPD folks you could chat with for.. uh.. opposing viewpoints. ;)

Posted by: Mr. Lion at February 16, 2004 09:15 AM

Shout out for the ATL!!!

Coincidentally, I'm headed down to AUburn tomorrow. I've got a fewe construction projects going on down there (including the stadium).

Good to have you aboard & lok forward to hearing more from you, Will.

Posted by: Ron at February 16, 2004 09:40 AM

Remember, too, that the Republican convention will be in New York. The inevitable freak show of environmentalists, anti-free traders, anarchists, and other assorted lefties will probably show up. Let's hope they get lots of quality time on camera so the rest of America can see the Democratic "base" at work.

Posted by: Kurt at February 16, 2004 10:02 AM

Walk around the streets of New York with an "I Love Hillary" sign and you're as likely to get knifed as you are to be cheered.

Yeah, there's piles of liberals in NYC, but there are also a lot of people who remember 9/11 and who are becoming very turned off by the Democratic party.

Sure, the Northeast is liberal-ville and the south is conservative-land, but I wager that Bush has a much higher probability of scoring in New York than Kerry does in the south.

One October ad: split screen, no text, no dialogue...Bush atop the WTC rubble on the right, Kerry at an anti-war rally with Jane Fonda on the left.

Ouch.

Posted by: Mike M at February 16, 2004 10:58 AM

Thanks to all the New Yorkers who've chimed in. I'd certainly be happy to be wrong about this one.

I'll have a little more to say about this either this evening or tomorrow...

Posted by: Will Collier at February 16, 2004 11:06 AM

We're in Chicago temporarily, and I had a similar experience the other day going to the bookstore. In the politics/current events section, all of the books on the end caps and middle tables were about President Bush being a liar, Republicans being evil, conservatives being stupid and the like. I just got this image in my head of a little colony of doomed insects, screaming their superiority as the shadow of the killing foot looms over them...

Posted by: Jeff Medcalf at February 16, 2004 01:04 PM

Actually, I'd say you're right about NYC. Last weekend, my wife and I were up there for the day (from exurban Philly) to see "Avenue Q". We couldn't believe the attacks on GWB in the play that were lustily cheered by others in the crowd. It's a shame too, because it was funny as hell. By the way, these were in a play that featured among its songs "Everyone's a Little Bit Racist", and meant it as an anti-PC thing.

Posted by: Patrick at February 16, 2004 06:52 PM

According to tradesports, New York has a 15% probability of going Republican, whereas the reddest states have a 5% probability of going Democratic.

Posted by: Joseph Hertzlinger at February 18, 2004 12:55 PM

Have to agree with Mr. Lion. In the Village, you're gonna hear that stuff ad nauseum. But Kerry or whoever will end up toast in my neck of the woods: Staten Island, better known as the FDNY/NYPD dormitory.

Posted by: TC at February 18, 2004 12:55 PM

I love this city (NYC) of mine!!!!
But dam.............
People have some short memories!!
TC is right about SI, home of the Bravest and Finest.
We are the only borough to vote Republican. lol
I can't bring up GB's name at my mom's house without starting WWIII.......
God bless her Clinton lovin heart! hahaha

Posted by: bdawg65 at February 18, 2004 04:08 PM