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50 Things That Will Happen in 2004
Posted by Stephen Green · 31 December 2003
Ralph Nader will run for President again, but do worse than in 2000. The Libertarians will nominate an anti-war candidate, and also do worse. The Democratic Convention will be the most unruly and watchable since 1968. The Republican Convention will be the most saccharine and unwatchable since 1984. Dennis Kucinich will propose a Constitutional amendment granting the vote to kitties. Howard Dean will come in second in Iowa to Dick Gephardt, win by less than 18 points over John Kerry in New Hampshire, and do no better than second in South Carolina. (However, he's still the most likely nominee.) John Kerry will drop out of the race after South Carolina. Teresa Heinz Kerry will file for divorce in December, citing "irreconcilable finances." That same month, John Edwards will announce he's returning to his legal practice come 2005. Joe Lieberman will stick around through Super Tuesday. Wesley Clark will be the Democrat's vice-presidential candidate. George W. Bush will be reelected with 52-53% of the popular vote, in a low-turnout election. Hillary Clinton will watch and smile. This time around, there will be allegations of voting discrepancies in Florida and California. Turnout will be low because we'll witness the nastiest presidential campaign in living memory. Despite (or perhaps because of) the McCain-Feingold campaign reform law, more money than ever will be spent on elections. The Democrats will keep John Breaux's old Senate seat – but almost wish they hadn't, thanks to yet another DLC-type winner. The most honest election coverage will be found on Jon Stewart's The Daily Show. Arnold will prove a popular governor, but fail to balance California's budget without trickery. He'll also fail to deliver the state to Bush. Colorado will name the Citron martini "The Official State Cocktail." At least one Dixie Chick will say something stupid about the election. Apple's iTunes will remain the most popular pay-per-download service. "Joe Average II" will tank. The most-watched show of the May Sweeps will be the "Friends" finale. Robert Blake will be convicted and Michael Jackson will be acquitted. James Lileks will return to radio, but not anywhere I'll be able to hear him. There will be no 9/11-scale attacks on American soil next year. In the unlikely event of another major US military campaign (at least one reinforced division), it will be in Venezuela, not the Middle East. Osama bin Laden will not be found, unless as "stuff on a boot." The Dow Jones Industrial Average will move mostly sideways, with a post-election/year-end rally of no better than 8%. The dollar will gain against the euro by 10% or more. Saddam Hussein will be tried, convicted, and given life in prison. The Iraqi insurgency will continue at a slightly reduced rate. The new Iraqi government will have a de facto defense pact with the US, but no treaty. Saudi Arabia will loosen up, by allowing accompanied women to drive Segways. Syria's Assad will attempt to pull a "Khadaffi" with his country's WMDs. But he'll either fail to live up to any promises, or be deposed. Next summer, Tehran will suppress another student mini-rebellion. There's a 50% chance of serious Israeli-on-Israeli bloodshed as Ariel Sharon attempts to dismantle settlements in the West Bank. Maureen Dowd will compare the Israeli Security Fence to the Berlin Wall. Taiwan will not vote for independence from China. The new Chrysler 300C will debut to solid reviews and lousy sales. The most coveted car of 2004 will be the C6 Corvette. Cadillac will have its best sales in 20 years. Silly lists will continue to appear in this space. At least two bloggers I've never heard of will get magazine jobs for their online efforts. InstaPundit will install voice-activated blogging software in his Mazda RX-8, assuming he hasn't already. However, his October attempt to get WiFi-enabled computers placed above the urinals at the University of Tennessee Law Department will end in an embarrassing failure. John Derbyshire will win Andrew Sullivan's 2004 Derbyshire Award. Paul Krugman will adopt a tinfoil hat, and write a series of columns detailing how the Republican National Committee is controlling our static electricity. Comments
I only did 15 here: http://www.punditmark.com/archives/000155.html Posted by: Mark at December 30, 2003 11:25 PM"George W. Bush will be reelected with 52-53% of the popular vote, in a low-turnout election." Please! Please! I don't love him (I thought Republicans were against big government, dammit), but I'd love to be able to sneer "popular majority, dude!" to my more lefty friends. "Hillary Clinton will watch and smile." shudder - the idea that a lot of women might vote for her simply because she's female terrifies me to my core. Posted by: John at December 31, 2003 02:28 AMJohn, let's hope she's running against Condi. Posted by: Sarah e.g. at December 31, 2003 03:14 AMI thought Glenn had a Mazda RX8? Posted by: James Joyner at December 31, 2003 06:54 AMHilliary is already smiling. My fearless prediction: Does anyone want to predict whether McCain will run as an independent? That's what scares me. If he does, it's hello President Rodham. She'll divorce bubba, the second she's back in the White House. Posted by: erp at December 31, 2003 08:06 AM***At least two bloggers I've never heard of will get magazine jobs for their online efforts.*** That is unlikely to happen since the idea of the "undiscovered blogger" is a myth. Posted by: Joe Carter at December 31, 2003 09:58 AMPosted by: Randal Robinson at December 31, 2003 12:13 PM Steve- What about precious metals? Ed Posted by: ed at December 31, 2003 03:12 PM"The Democrats will keep John Breaux's old Senate seat – but almost wish they hadn't, thanks to yet another DNC-type winner." I suspect you mean "DLC." Of course, perhaps I'm wrong. Posted by: Gary Farber at December 31, 2003 03:32 PMI have a couple to add: There's a schism or major bloodletting in the Democrat party after Bush is reelected. Look for the looney left to be cast aside like the Republicans did to the Pat Buchannan wing in the 90s. A major war or coup will involve one or more of the following countries: China, N. Korea, Pakistan, Iran Another middle eastern dictatorship will fall, probably Iran, Saud, or Syria Big media will hemmorage severely and internet news and blogging will move into the mainstream. Make sure you save everyones predictions somewhere...*wink* Happy new year all Posted by: Mike M at December 31, 2003 06:08 PMI predict they will discover that I'm right about what happened to the Beagle 2 probe to mars... Heh. Posted by: CERDIP at January 1, 2004 07:48 PMTO: Stephen Green "Colorado will name the Citron martini "The Official State Cocktail."" -- Stephen Green [trying to out-do the 'spiritualists'] Yeah....Right.... Boodles gin. M&R vermouth, ice and an queen-sized Spanish olive. Happy New Year.... ....and pass the fried mushrooms. Chuck(le) i believe colorado has recently announced that the state drink is a glass of water (lemon, no ice) from a brita pitcher (because everyone here has one but absolutely doesn't need one), with a pop can full of jim beam and coke hidden in their desk drawer. Posted by: gijyun at March 17, 2004 09:24 AMTime for mid-year review? For one instance, we haven't seen as many silly lists as I'd have predicted... Posted by: Pouncer at June 3, 2004 02:37 PMThe political ones can be excused due to the nearly unimaginable rapid plunge by Dean and rise by Kerry. However, how you missed it on the Chrysler 300C is beyond me. The thing teh bling. Posted by: Razor at August 19, 2004 09:13 AM |
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