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Posted by Stephen Green · 24 November 2003

Michael Barone on what ails the Democrats:

The country is closely divided between Republicans and Democrats, but it's not a symmetrical division. The Republicans are united and the Democrats are divided. Republicans are solidly behind George W. Bush. Democrats are about evenly divided on issues like military action in Iraq and gay marriage (a possible election-year issue given the decision of the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court last week). About a third of all Democrats give Bush a positive job rating. The Democrats seem divided roughly evenly between Bush haters and people who have mixed feelings about the president.

To be fair, it's always tougher for the party out of power to remain cohesive, if only because they don't have a national leader to coalesce around. But in this time of war, Barone argues, the Democrats' problem runs a little deeper:

Democrats will have a problem either way. If the un-Dean wins, Dean's enthusiastic supporters will be bitterly disappointed. Some will not want to vote for a Democrat who voted for military action in Iraq. The Green Party nominee, whether Ralph Nader runs or not, could easily exceed the 3 percent Nader won in 2000. That would hurt with the electorate this closely divided. Just ask Al Gore.
The Democrats' problem will be different if Dean is nominated. Their problem will be with American exceptionalism. That is the idea, shared by most Americans, that this country is unique and special, with unique virtues and special responsibilities--a city on a hill, as John Winthrop and Ronald Reagan put it, with the responsibility to spread freedom and democracy around the world. Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman, John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan were all American exceptionalists.

And who is the exceptionalist in today's field of Democratic nominee wanna-bes?

Anyone?

Comments

I don't know if it counts, but they're all exceptionally thick headed, unattractive and out of touch with reality.

Posted by: erp at November 24, 2003 07:12 AM

The Dems may be divided now, but when they make their selection they will unite around him.
What's killing them is that most of their moderates have left.

Posted by: Ray at November 24, 2003 08:30 AM

Ray,

Probably.

But it's worth remembering that Nader ran in '00, and a number of Left-Dems went w/ him (along w/ people who wouldn't have voted otherwise).

It certainly is conceivable that the Left might run Nader or someone like him again, and implode, ESPECIALLY if Dean tacks hard to the right after the primaries/convention.

Posted by: Dean at November 24, 2003 08:49 AM

Dean,
I'm a frequent lurker at democraticundergroung.com. You can get a pretty good assessment of the far left there. They might debate whether Bush is the worst president ever vs. whether he actually a spawn of Satan, but know this, they will vote for whoever has the "D" by his name. The Republicans won't be able to count on a Nader to divert votes this time around.

Posted by: Ray at November 24, 2003 10:09 AM

Ray,

You think they'd vote for Lieberman?? I figger half those folks wouldn't vote at all, or would find a Green candidate to work for.

I've read DU. And those are the folks who, on the one hand, are most likely to support Howard Dean (sorry, but there it is, the man is NOT a moderate centrist, but a Lefty), but only so long as he gives 'em that "old time religion."

Watch him claim that he'd go unilateral sometimes, stay in Iraq, NOT go to the UN, etc., and you hafta wonder how long the DU would put up w/ it.

'Cuz, to be honest, a lotta them didn't cotton to Clinton, either. Oh, they held their noses and voted for him in '92, and even more so in '96, but the welfare reform bill and his triangulation burned a lotta 'em, too.

Posted by: Dean at November 24, 2003 11:06 AM

There's always a communications lag between the involved (the DU folks qualify) and the masses.

If Dem's post-nomination story is too different from Dean's pre-nomination message, a significant number of Dean folk will probably bolt until they get reeducated.

Is there enough time? Dean has stayed on message fairly well.

Posted by: Andy Freeman at November 24, 2003 12:12 PM

As a life long Dem, this hurts... But, the Dem party is fucked. They're continuing the alienation that started when that cardboard cutout Gore was tapped to run against Dubya.
I dunno if the good lil soldiers will tow the line and pull the "D" lever but I kind of hope not. Mebbe a ballbusting defeat like in '80 will bring the party out of the doldrums, but I doubt it. I can't really get behind any of the zeros currently in conention...
Bummer, because we really need a STRONG second party to keep the GOP "honest".

Posted by: ricky at November 25, 2003 05:31 AM

To be fair, it's always tougher for the party out of power to remain cohesive, if only because they don't have a national leader to coalesce around.

Really? House Republicans were pretty cohesive in the decade leading up to 1994. They had to be to have any effect. The Dems are (among other things) a motley coalition of interest groups, which causes them their unique problems.

Posted by: Magyar at November 26, 2003 01:24 PM