It's never too early to start predicting election winners. And of the nine Democratic candidates for President next year, Howard Fineman has the list of possible winners narrowed down to. . . six?
Read:
Here we are, 100 days or so from the start of voting in what will be a rapid-fire and rapidly decisive series of caucuses and primaries, and no one has one achieved true, slam-dunkable frontrunner status. Just the opposite: There are no fewer than six contenders with scenarios for victory realistic enough that they still must be taken seriously, try as some might to dismiss them.
As in the horserace, so on the issues. Hanging out together in interminable non-debate debates, the nine Democratic contenders seem at times to have congealed into a glutinous, undifferentiated mass, each sounding more and more like the other as the days pass. Now they’re all, at a minimum, for abolishing most of the Bush tax cuts; now they’re all complaining, with ever-growing fury, about Iraq. Rep. Dennis Kucinich remains the only Vegan, but give the others time. The result is the political equivalent of entropy.
The rest of the article outlines possible victory scenarios of Dean, Clark, Kerry, Gephardt, Leiberman, and Edwards. Political junkies should check it out.
Wow. The phrase "the nine Democratic contenders seem ... to have congealed into a glutinous, undifferentiated mass" is pure poetry. And how true.
“The result is the political equivalent of entropy.”
Don’t worry your pretty little head about it Howie. That’s exactly how Hillary wants it.
The primaries have been set up in such a way that none of those running, and don't forget Donna Brazile and her favorite son candidates, will come to the convention with enough primary votes to win on the first ballot.
That way Hillary doesn't have to make a choice until next summer's convention. If it's perceived that Bush is beatable, she'll accept the nomination by acclamation. If not, Gephardt will get the nod, he being the most expendable.
As for her vice-presidential choice, I predict Richardson for two reasons. He's Hispanic and he's not likely to make any waves.
She won’t even lose out on the matching funds because Clark is acting as her proxy raking in contributions for her war chest.
As for poor Dean, I am very concerned for his safety and fervently hope he doesn’t get anywhere the number of primary votes needed to win on the first ballot.
"Then along came Howard Dean, the Fiery Human Blog, who rose to prominence on a wave of Internet and anti-war activism. "
Heh. The human blog.
The Dem primary race reeks of Clinton, and may as well be a bunch of smoke and mirrors leading up to the big decision of whether Hillary will usurp the nom at the convention or not. They've already set the precedent for this in New Jersey with the Toracelli/Lautenberg debacle so people will be more willing to accept it.
Is there really any doubt that the whole purpose of Wesley Clark is to steal the nom from Dean and then agree to run as Hillary's VP to a throng of wildly cheering Dems in prime time at the convention?
Now I'd like to see Dean win just to see the resulting chaos among Democrats.
I get the feeling the Bush-Cheney 04 are already planning on Hillary as an opponent...
I am already bored with the dem primaries. and they aren't even officially here!
