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Left Coast Brain Drain
Posted by Stephen Green  ·  29 August 2003

An interesting, and under-reported, statistic from Daniel Henninger:

The most significant voting bloc in California's famous recall election isn't Hispanics or angry male Democrats but the people who were so eager to weigh in that they've already voted--with their feet. According to a report out this month from the U.S. Census Bureau, an astounding 2,204,500 Californians threw in the towel from 1995 to 2000 and highballed it out of the "Golden State." The state's net migration figure for the period is --755,536, and would be worse if Latin American immigrants didn't still drop in for a look. This is the first time the net migration number for California has ever gone negative.

There's more:

If you look down the Census Bureau's coming-and-going column nearby, the consistent breakdown of Democratic blue-state population losers and Republican red-state gainers is striking (there are exceptions; Oregon and Washington state gained, while Louisiana lost). This may leave the blue states bluer than ever, but not very pleasant places to live if their most industrious, motivated citizens are loading up one-way U-Hauls.

Is California the new Europe?

Comments

Sounds like some sort of "Socialist Disease"

Posted by: Vince at August 29, 2003 07:46 AM

There's a reason why us Oregon webfoots (natives) call them Californicators. They want to remake the state into a California clone--they came here because it's different but then they whine and try to make it the same.

Posted by: Kris Hasson-Jones at August 29, 2003 11:42 AM

Yep, California is turning into France. Get a load of this pending legislation: at http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/pub/bill/sen/sb_0001-0050/sb_18_bill_20030825_amended_asm.html. It creates a new bureaucracy to protect Native American Traditional Tribal Cultural Sites, (not defined in the bill, the agency would define them) and contains a secrecy provision that appears to permit the agency to conduct its business out of the public eye. The bill potentially could permit anyone claiming that a particular location was a TTCS to stop or delay any public works project in California, not to mention private development.

Sen. John Burton (D-San Francisco) is the lead sponsor of this bill. I'd be willing to bet that if any TTCS are located in his district, they would be unrecognizable or, if not, are already developed.

Posted by: ExRat at August 29, 2003 03:23 PM

I'm leaving Los Angeles for Texas as soon as I can. It's hard to say whether the government, the real estate market, or the liberals/tranzis are the worst.

Posted by: Karl at August 30, 2003 01:46 AM

Sounds like some sort of "Socialist Disease"

There will be no, repeat, no subtle references to Bon Jovi today. ;-)

Posted by: Michael Ubaldi at August 31, 2003 01:08 PM

Hmmm. A couple of years ago I recall California Democrats puffing with pride and saying that now they controled everything that mattered in California ... we'd see what Democrats really could do with government.

We've seen. I've voted Democrat for the last time.

Not a single new idea. Only destructive adaptations of old ones increasingly proven to be abject failures.

Posted by: Bart Hall (Kansas) at August 31, 2003 01:12 PM

Hmm, I wonder if this has implications for the Judis/Teixiera "The Emerging Democratic Majority" thesis? That the appeal of the party to these new groups - upwardly mobile women, minorities - may not be such a lock as they propose.

Any ideas on what types of people are leaving? Largely white with families? Hispanic? High income? Who is NOT leaving?

SMG

Posted by: SteveMG at August 31, 2003 01:14 PM

They keep coming here to Arizona, too, and are trying to turn it into Kalifornia.

Before they come, they should read this!

Posted by: John Moore (Useful Fools) at August 31, 2003 01:15 PM

This explains so much. For example, it wasn't that New York had a blackout. It was simply that the last one out turned off all the lights!

Posted by: ScottC at August 31, 2003 01:16 PM

USS Clueless has a post this week on the exact same subject...
it's worth reading.

Chap.

Posted by: Chap at August 31, 2003 01:32 PM

I live in Virginia and we have a similar problem.

Lots of people came from the northeast in the 80s to escape the "rust belt".....and then continued to vote for the same policies that caused the rust belt to happen. Particularly amusing (in a sick and hateful sort of way) were the people who moved to the south because they thought they could be open bigots towards blacks.....and that we rednecks would be pleased with this. More than once I have witnessed the shock and horror Of a "progressive" transplant from Mass. or NY at the number of interacial couples we have here....usually accompanied with some comment about ignorant redneck white trash. :)

Now we're getting Kalifornians coming here looking for work in the tech industry in VA. They are if anything even more arrogant and clueless than the northeasterners, though often without the racial hangups...just a hatred of southerners.

Now PeTA is headquartered here.....I think I'll move to Tonga. :)

Posted by: Ken T at August 31, 2003 01:40 PM

Of course, emigration from California has nothing to do with a recession following a tech crash. Everyone piled into Cali, they tried to make a quick buck, and when that failed, they left just as quickly.

Posted by: falsemagent at August 31, 2003 01:53 PM

Now PeTA is headquartered here.....


PETA ? Is that People for the Eating of Tasty Animals ?

Posted by: Bart at August 31, 2003 01:56 PM

The only thing more clueless than us "northeasterners", is someone from VA telling us that Massachusetts is in the rust belt. Got it.

Posted by: Rob at August 31, 2003 03:39 PM

"They are if anything even more arrogant and clueless than the northeasterners . . ."

Oh my . . . bigotry, indeed.

G.
(Los Angeles)

Posted by: Geoffrey at August 31, 2003 04:08 PM

Gas tax, Sales tax, high cost of living, hemoraging tech jobs overseas, local tax, state tax, federal tax, tripling car registration fees....

Makes the state-tax free Seattle look all the more appealing.

Posted by: PJ at August 31, 2003 04:40 PM

America has always been a restless, mvoing nation, and yearts ago we learned that the territories were finally closed: California reached. Now there is a turn back...we look for a better life, cheaper housing, jobs, etc--we are Tom Joads but now in a globalization that changes many things. Jobs in my area (New England) moved South--no unions, cheap labor--and then moved to Mexico...now we find the "shit" jobs gone for illegals and foreign laborers and next the tech jobs going to India...what will we have left? Not sure but I think it will be the very wealthy who make their money no matter who does what. As for maintaining an army etc? mercneraries will be next step. Sign me up--good pay.

Posted by: fred at August 31, 2003 04:50 PM

America has always been a restless, mvoing nation, and yearts ago we learned that the territories were finally closed: California reached. Now there is a turn back...we look for a better life, cheaper housing, jobs, etc--we are Tom Joads but now in a globalization that changes many things. Jobs in my area (New England) moved South--no unions, cheap labor--and then moved to Mexico...now we find the "shit" jobs gone for illegals and foreign laborers and next the tech jobs going to India...what will we have left? Not sure but I think it will be the very wealthy who make their money no matter who does what. As for maintaining an army etc? mercneraries will be next step. Sign me up--good pay.

Posted by: fred at August 31, 2003 04:50 PM

The reason millions of people left California is obvious: unskilled Hispanic immigration, and the accompanying crime/taxes/medical care/etc. Unskilled immigration means that Californians pay less for the products of unskilled labor, but overall they pay more to the state - and they're also shot at/carjacked/etc.

Don't believe me? The FBI counts Hispanics as white (which artificially inflates the white crime rate) when they're offenders, but somehow makes the distinction between Hispanic and white *victims* when it comes to "hate crimes". See here:

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm

However, the California Department of Justice separately collects stats on Hispanic crime rates. Check out the section "Profiles of Offenders" at the following link

http://caag.state.ca.us/cjsc/publications/misc/cinc/4system.pdf

I will bet dollars to doughnuts that a plot of emigrants will reveal that they mostly came from Southern California, particularly the parts that have large numbers of new Hispanics (mainly Mexicans).

Obviously many/most Hispanics are not criminals, but they *are* unskilled and do require transfer payments (e.g. the 500000 illegals per year pay no taxes, yet require medical care, schooling, etc. b/c of prop 187).

So it's no surprise as to why Californians are leaving. The dot-com bust is a large part of it, but Hispanic immigration is too.

Posted by: realist at August 31, 2003 04:52 PM

"State-tax free Seattle"

What the hell are you talking about? While there may not be an income tax in the Upper Left Washington, it not because the Left hasn't tried. Then there's the 8.9% sales tax (even more on restraurant meals in King County to pay for three stadiums, including the late, unlamented Kingdome), the RTA tax which in almost a decade has spent a billion dollars a laid not one inch of "light rail", the highest gax tax in the country, and our B&O (business and occupations) tax which scrapes 1.5% to 3% off the gross of business that can't get an exemption passed through the Legislature. And next month the "progressives" of Seattle will vote to impose a tax on lattes to pay for "child care."

The only thing that has kept this state from becoming another California is that the Left only controls the part on the Left side of the Cascades.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at August 31, 2003 04:52 PM

the 500000 illegals per year pay no taxes, yet require medical care, schooling, etc. b/c of prop 187

Sorry, because of the failure to *enforce* prop 187. What we need are Victor Davis Hanson like reforms. We need to regain control of our borders, and start deporting illegal immigrants in a city-by-city fashion. Just like the 13000 Arabs/Muslims who we started deporting, once it's put on notice that we're enforcing our immigration laws, many of the illegal immigrants will start auto-deporting themselves.

Posted by: realist at August 31, 2003 04:54 PM

This report and article are very misleading. There was indeed negative domestic net migration to California in the early 1990s. Its not the first time. Furthermore, the trend has reversed. In 2002, there were more people moving into Calif from other states than were moving out.

Posted by: Craig Will at August 31, 2003 04:58 PM

Craig Will,

I have not verified the timing of the net migration out of California from 1990 to 2000. It may be true but would run counter to anecdotal evidence, such as the timing of the tech boom and bust. I do strongly doubt your claim that the "trend ws reversed" in 2002.

Based on the following source, California lost another 9,000 in 2002 (502,000 in and 511,000 out).

Current Population Survey Report, March 2002 Data: California
California State Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit

Posted by: BWB at August 31, 2003 05:45 PM

"The only thing more clueless than us "northeasterners", is someone from VA telling us that Massachusetts is in the rust belt. Got it. "

I think Penn is/was in the "rust belt," and I would locate it in the northeast. I didn't see where Ken mentioned Mass specifically. Looks like someone hit the "arrogant, clueless and OBTUSE" trifecta.

Posted by: arlo at August 31, 2003 06:05 PM

I'm one of those people who moved from California to Nevada. I am a native Californian, and it really makes me sad that I can't see myself ever moving back there again.

Democrats deserve a lot of the blame. Another ex-pat Californian once said to me that in the 1960s Californians were the freest people in the world. Now they are the least free in the U.S.

Posted by: James Hudnall at August 31, 2003 06:27 PM

The Internet Boom/Bust was another California Gold Rush. Just like in 1849, people came to California from all over the country to strike it rich. When they didn't and the gold ran out, a lot of them left.

The Bay Area's economy is a disaster, but economic shortfalls are happening all over. Governmental budgets were drawn up to spend the largess of dot.com wealth that never materialized. No wealth; instant deficit. Democrats blame Bush, Republicans blame Clinton (and Davis), not enough people are blaming the obvious cascade effect trillions of fictional dollars had on federal and state budget decisions.

It wasn't just hipster twenty-somethings at internet startups losing their stock options, those people paid rent, employed the service industries, paid the taxes funding schools and roads and hospitals, built buildings, ate at restaurants and contributed to the life of their towns and cities. When the bottom fell out, everyone suffered.

Elected leaders ride the same socioeconomic waves as the rest of us. They succeed when guiding their jurisdictions through difficult times and don't shift burdens forward. By that measure, both Clinton and Bush have (likely) failed economically. Clinton didn't reign in spending to counter an irrational market, and Bush may not be doing enough to prevent the burdens from carrying forward onto our children.

California is in financial trouble, but blame is not solely attributable to any one person or any one policy.

Posted by: Joe Maller at August 31, 2003 08:49 PM

As a 3rd Generation Californian (& mother of 3 4th Gen same), I call this-- The state's net migration figure for the period is --755,536 -- A GOOD START! Personally, I'd like nothing better than to kick out everyone who arrived in the last 50 years! Used to be a really nice place to live! Well, a girl can dream, can't she?

Posted by: Marianne at August 31, 2003 10:59 PM

BEB,
Here is my source for the claim that more people moved into Calif from other states than moved from Calif to other states in 2002:
Department of Finance
Demographic Research Unit

January 2003

OFFICIAL STATE ESTIMATES

Last year, the state’s population grew 1.74 percent, adding 603,000 persons. This growth resulted mainly from a substantial amount of net migration (about 51 percent of fiscal-year growth). At 307,640, this is the third year since 1989 that net migration was a larger component of change than natural increase. Net immigration was 231,440 of net migration, a level somewhat lower than the prior year. It was the continued gains in net domestic migration, totaling 76,200, that permitted net migration to exceed natural increase this year, as was also true last year. This unusual recent domestic migration pattern (through 2001) moderated in the last part of the fiscal year.
[following are my comments]
Note in above that NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION is 76,200.
I have seen some other data, from economy.com that talks about negative net migration to Calif but I haven't looked into it in detail. So I'm not sure about this, and I'm certainly not an expert.
I do know that there was a lot of people moving out of Calif in the early to mid nineties, there is a Federal Reserve Board note on this and lots of references on the Web to it. The federal report seems very odd to me because the period they cite was during the height of the boom. I don't really understand why the data seems to be conflicting except that the federal data seems to look at the data in very large chunks, 5 year intervals, whereas other data is year by year.
My main point is the one-sidedness of the claims, everyone is saying the sky is falling now when this has happened before and, although maybe the data is murky, seems to be reversing itself.
Craig Will

Posted by: Craig Will at August 31, 2003 11:27 PM

1. The fundamental problem with state budgets is that only a few of them held the line against spending increases. Most of them raised their budgets through the roof. Now that their spending has gone skyhigh, and their revenues dropped through the floor, is it any wonder that the house is in ruins?

2. California has been touted in the past as an example of rule by Democrats. Which reinforces my decision to abandon the DNC permanently for the GOP. Which is a rather strange experience as I don't particularly care for the GOP at all. Frankly I'd prefer to identify myself as a Conservative Democrat, in that order, but there's no place for someone like me in the DNC. If you're not a whining chiseling blowhard trying "to grab your share of the pie", to quote a friend, then you have no place in the DNC. Evidently you need to feel oppressed, be a minority and/or gay in order to be a mainstream Democrat.

Jesus what a ratf**k.

3. Tech jobs that are now moving offshore will move right back here. A great many companies are finding out that any potential savings are largely mirages. The lower productivity, cultural issues, language barriers (not all version of English are the same), communication issues and travel distances tend to make those imaginary savings evaporate.

A case in point is the experience of a good friend of mine who had to deal with an offshore development team located in the Phillipines. Composed of Indians, who were culturally incapable of dealing with women managers, she had an incredible bitch of a time getting them to talk to her. They would use every opportunity to treat her like a servant and refused to deal with her. She had to read them the riot act, toe the line or get fired ASAP, in order to get things changed. Even then she still had problems and the delivered software system was utter crap.

4. Frankly California is a self-made problem. The only cure is to leave the state to those that made it a problem and let them fester in that swill until they choke. I've found that Liberals are only Liberal when it doesn't impact them. When it does, then they act worse than any Conservative. Take a good look at Massachusetts and an attempt at locating a wind power farm offshore of a popular summer vacation spot for the elite (Martha's Vineyard perhaps? Can't remember). The Liberals are fighting it tooth and nail because "it spoils the view"!!

I supposed they'd be fighting for it if it weren't spoiling THEIR view eh?

ed

Posted by: Ed at August 31, 2003 11:34 PM

People probably moved out of California during the DotCom boom due to the insane housing prices that made it nearly impossible for people to live there. Consider all those people living fairly placid lives suddenly overwhelmed by DotCom'ers willing to spend huge amounts of cash. Many probably sold their homes to fund a retirement/relocation. Others might have been simply pushed out by landlords wanting to cash in. Others might have been overwhelmed by property taxes suddenly rising due to insane price increased on the housing market.

Any of those would cause an exodus.

ed

Posted by: ed at August 31, 2003 11:38 PM

Joe's wrong. Since acquiring total control of California’s government in 1999, Democrats have busily enacted a slew of legislation imposing off-budget programs on business that would warm the hearts of any European socialist or EU bureaucrat. These new laws, regulations and mandates have made California is less competitive for new jobs than any other state in the union.

No one can blame that on the Internet bubble, the energy crisis, September 11 or the Bush Administration. Only California’s elected Democrats can take credit for that accomplishment. And Californians are beginning to figure it out - after all, the recall isn't happening in a vacuum.

Posted by: Tim at August 31, 2003 11:41 PM

I wish everyone would get out of California (but don't come here to Arizona - see my previous comment).

Then I could move back to Malibu where I lived in 1970. Oh... after they change a few laws, of course.

So Kalifornians, please go to OREGON. Oregon is full of people JUST LIKE YOU. They hug trees. They like Democrats. They are Democrats.

Posted by: John Moore (Useful Fools) at September 1, 2003 12:06 AM

I am a native Californian and am having quite a nice life here. I live in an urban area. I am fortunate to own a house and a job. This is partly good fortune and partly because I don't spend money I don't have like a fool and because I chose to forego higher paying but unstable jobs for something duller but more secure. I live in an urban, mixed race area, that is a little run down, but safe enough to walk one's dog at 9:00 at night and not hear anything more threatening than "Nice evening."

California is a nice place to live, actually. The fact that people are leaving is fine with me. As the old bumper sticker said, when you leave, just take someone with you. Neither do I mind legal immigrants. Many of them eventually become citizens, and the majority, God bless them, seem to make better Americans than a lot of the ones that were born here.

Posted by: Laurie K. at September 1, 2003 01:10 AM

I live in California. The illegal immigrants are mostly peaceable folk who do a bunch of shit work for low pay. When they commit crimes they do so against other poor people.

No Californian lives in fear of illegal immigrants. When people leave California -- and it is the Bay Area they are leaving, not LA -- it is because the cost of living is too expensive or because they cannot find a job.

Posted by: Floyd McWilliams at September 1, 2003 08:57 AM

Here in New Hampshire we get "Massholes" moving in and then voting for all the polices that Massachusetts such a hellhole that they left it. Liberals just don't seem to understand cause and effect.

Posted by: ralph phelan at September 1, 2003 03:11 PM

Daniel Heninger's Opinion Journal piece was based on this census bureau document. The net migration data for every state is on Page 9.

I find it interesting that Washington and Oregon, very democratic places, both bucked the national trend.

Posted by: Cedar Bristol at September 2, 2003 12:50 AM

Washington and Oregon tend to have a mix of conservative and liberal views. In these states, everything east of the mountains tends to be ultra conservative. Farmers, ranchers, bible belt kind of conservative. This tends to offset the more liberal west side of the mountains. People moving to these states tend to move to the west side.

Posted by: James at September 2, 2003 10:35 AM



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