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A Fine Teacher
Posted by Stephen Green · 3 April 2003
Forgive the lengthy extract, but this one is important. In today's New York Times, Israeli historian and army reservist Yagil Henkin says that American forces assaulting Baghdad can learn a thing or two from the IDF: In Nablus, the Israeli Defense Force achieved its most remarkable success — taking control of the city's casbah, a densely populated maze of narrow alleys and old stone buildings — in just a few days. Israeli forces used no artillery, and despite estimates predicting dozens of casualties, sustained just four. While I don't expect us to enter Baghdad proper until more American ground forces are in-theater (although I could again be wildly wrong) next week, I do expect them to use much of what the Israelis have learned. After all, we don't invite their officers over here to help train for no good reason. Comments
Stephen, We may even have a thing or two to teach the Israelis. While the Israelis are very, very good, it is useful to remember that, at the end of the day, they are also resource constrained. The state of Israel has only so much to spend; the US military has substantially more. So, on top of useful suggestions and hints from them, we've probably got a few toys that even they may not know about. Posted by: Dean at April 3, 2003 08:05 AMArquilla and Ronfeldt have been arguing for this for years and have written tons of material on this, including In Athena's Camp, Netwars, etc (some of thier books can be had for free in the Rand website). They call their doctrine Battleswarm. Just FYI. Posted by: Javier at April 3, 2003 09:03 AMSounds like the kind of operation 4ID would be exceptional at. Posted by: Dishman at April 3, 2003 09:46 AMI also read Henkin's article in the NYT this morning, and while it is certainly interesting and informative, I WAS left wondering, though, whether or not his input would be particularly applicable to the situation US forces will face in an attack/siege at Baghdad. IIRC, the casbah at Jenin did not occupy all that large an area (as evidenced by the aerial photos the IDF provided to disprove the claims of "massacre"), I think the destroyed area was something like maybe 200 x 300 meters (?? Pls correct if wrong!!) - and Jenin town is nor particularly big. Nablus, I think, is a bigger town, but in any case, neither present the sort of military challenge inherent in an attack/siege of a city the size of Baghdad. We are told that it has a population of 5 million people - and that it is a generally low-rise city (i.e., it is pretty well spread out). While a "Stalingrad" scenario may or may nor be in the cards here (I fervently hope not!), Mr. Henkin's advisements, while relevant to the Israeli experience, just don't seem. IMO, to relate to the the situation US forces will have to deal with. ANy comments? Personally, I vote for a kind of modified, instant 2nd amendment for the citizens of Baghdad, using what by now must be a considerable amount of intelligence on who is friend or foe. Seems to me this might synergize nicely with Yagil's planned unpredictability, though fog of war & friendly fire issues might be a problem. But better that than massive hostage taking & unending house to house searches. I understand there are about a million Kurds along with the 50%+ Shia population in Baghdad. Also understand there's now quite a flood of residents starting to overwhelm our troops. Seems like a systematic, down & dirty recruitment & arming of populace along with disgorgment of wumin & chilin would be very much in order. Whatcha think? Posted by: Lloyd at April 3, 2003 03:08 PMI do suspect the technique we'll see will be something like this -- an inside-out approach, that is, more than swarming. A lot of what we've been doing seems to involve feints to draw fire and damned if the overeager Fedayeen and RG aren't being drawn. And then quartered. The competence evidenced so far in all the major strategic defensive actions we feared -- burning oil wells, demolished bridges, blown dams -- doesn't seem to incidate that the training has had much effect at the strategic level. Some of the tactical training has been effective, it appears, but mainly because they're using the we're-crazy-and-you're-not dichotomy, and throwing bodies at the enemy. It isn't indicative of a long-term guerrilla war. So I question how much they're really gaining from their contacts with Fatah etc. Posted by: Dan Hartung at April 5, 2003 04:49 AM |
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