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What Will Iraq Look Like on V-I Day+1?
Posted by Stephen Green  ·   5 February 2003

The war is won. Now to win the peace. General Tommy Franks already had his bags packed at his HQ in Bahrain, and prepares to travel to his new job in Baghdad as Governor-General, Viceroy, Oppressor of the Dark People, whatever.

But what does Iraq look like?

First off, outside of the capital, Mosul, Tikrit, Basra, and a handful of other major cities, the place is mostly chaos. Oil well fires, fears of chemical and biological contamination, unexploded ordinance – all the bad stuff that follows a Middle East war. And that’s just the working environment; the rest is worse, or teetering on, um, worseness.

While we’re busy trying to seal unsealable borders to keep war criminals from escaping, Kurds, draftees, colonels, and Shi’ites will all be out for revenge. We’ll be lifting the lid on an awful lot of ancient hatreds, so we’ll have to put out a lot of fires. No one wants to fight the Americans, but they’ll all be itching to fight each other. Forget, for a little while, democracy, nation-building, and oil revenues. First the Coalition will have to stop those awful forces we’ll have unleashed.

There is some good news, though. After twenty years of losing wars, punishing sanctions, and local terror, many of the locals might just want nothing more than normal lives. I almost wrote “a return to normal life,” but not a whole lot of Iraqis have ever experienced such a simple thing. “Stop shooting and smell the flowers” might just have more resonance than mutual slaughter – but Franks won’t be able to count on it.

Besides, the Yanks and their buddies will be everywhere, and they’ll be armed to the teeth. And after Bosnia, we have some practical experience in keeping the kids separated long enough to simmer down a bit.

Our main goals for the occupation are as follows (and in order of importance):

Fixing any immediate disasters, such as burning oil wells, unfed citizens, treating civilians casualties, Iranian deployments, etc.

Disarming Iraq. Not just the Iraqi army, mind you, but the entire country. And don’t think the Kurds or Shi’ites are going to like it. We can’t build a multiethnic country if we start out with tribal fiefdoms.

Finding Ba’ath Party war criminals, archives, and arms caches. (The I-Told-You-So’s can wait a while.)

Setting up local (and I mean local) civilian authorities.

Getting together some sort of Iraqi Constitutional Convention, under strong Anglo-American oversight.

Handing off power as quickly as is reasonable to local authorities while the Interim Government sets up.

Complete Iraqi independence, culminating with a Treaty of Friendship between Iraq, the US, UK, Australia, Jordan, (Israel? Why not? Pre-Mullah Iran and Israel were quite friendly) and any other friendly nation.

Of course, that’s not all the work there is to be done in the Middle East, but I’m saving the rest for another post.

Comments

I dearly hope all those things are possible -- well, except trying to disarm the Iraqi citizenry, which strikes me as both unlikely to defang the real villains and an infringement on the right of self-defense -- but I fear that the attempt to impose a Western-style democracy on Iraq might be more difficult to do than to hope for.

Democracy hasn't worked out well in Africa. Even in the places where its forms are observed, it doesn't usually function in the fashion a Westerner would expect -- attending to public needs while maintaining respect for individual rights and the rule of law. It appears to require a level of local ideological maturation that doesn't exist in the places where European colonial powers once ruled. Even India, "the world's largest democracy" nurtured under the classical-liberal British, is closer to being a fascist dictatorship than a place marked by freedom.

Now, it's possible that Iraq is ready for a Western-style democracy. I'd like that. But I wouldn't be surprised if we had to impose a MacArthur-style benevolent despotism for several years, to lay the groundwork for the new system as we did in postwar Japan. Should that prove necessary, we should treat it as one of the obligations of a liberator.

Posted by: Francis W. Porretto at February 5, 2003 06:27 AM

One thing I'd add to your list is setting up a local, multi-ethnic professional army. A central government cannot exercise control over fractuous regions without the force to bring them into line. In the short term, that force will be provided by the US, but any exit strategy has to involve building up a real force the government can call its own.

Of course, the problem with this, as has been demonstrated dozens of times the world over, is that in a new democracy in a chaotic condition like IRaq, the cold fact that ultimate power rests with the army is glaringly apparent.

And given that, army generals (and colonels and sergeants) are often not willing to buy into the idea of civilian control. This is the central problem of government from the Roman Empire to Pakistan.

I have no answers, but I think this is the billion dollar question in any nation building job.

Posted by: Doug Turnbull at February 5, 2003 08:11 AM

I gotta agree with Francis that trying to disarm the population is a good idea. Gun control doesn't work anywhere else, why should it work there. Instead, I say give a gun to every man, woman, and child over the age of 12 and tell them that they'd better hang on to it, or you won't give them any of their other rights, either.

That'll take them right out of victimhood. And when there are no victims, how can you have oppressors? You don't. You have civilised people ready to talk about things in a calm manner, or you have a bunch of dead cocksuckers. Either way, problem gets solved real quick.

Posted by: Aaron at February 5, 2003 08:27 AM

Sorry. I meant disarming the population is a BAD idea. Boy I'm retahded.

Posted by: Aaron at February 5, 2003 08:28 AM

Complete Iraqi independence, culminating with a Treaty of Friendship between Iraq, the US, UK, Australia, Jordan, (Israel? Why not? Pre-Mullah Iran and Israel were quite friendly) and any other friendly nation.

Oh man, that would be simply awesome to go from an Iraq actively promoting and supporting Palestinian terrorism to one that denounces it and upholds Israel's right to exist peacefully.

But I'm sure it would "destabilize" too many vicious oppressive governments to be of any use, eh? Wouldn't want any change out there.

Posted by: Charles Hueter at February 5, 2003 08:53 AM



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