VodkapunditVodkapunditVodkapundit
A Quick Fisk
Posted by Stephen Green  ·  20 December 2002

Bill Quick is wrong. Let's go point-by-point.

We've established the principle that we will (must?) bribe self-interested or openly inmical nations for their permission to defend ourselves.

Wrong. We've shown cash-strapped Russia that we won't sell them down the river. France, as usual, is just along for the ride. But just because the French will get theirs is no reason to paint Putin into a corner.

We've established the principle that the United Nations has a veto over any US use of force, even in self defense.

Wrong. Without UN permission, we'll go in anyway. With UN permission, we'll have finally bent that organization to our knee for the first time since the 1950 outbreak of the (First?) Korean War. Bill is further wrong in trying to pin UN-boosterism on anything he's read here. I think the nicest thing I've said about the Security Council is that it's something close to a tragic necessity.

We've established the principle that the feelings of the Saudi princes are much more important than the safety of Americans, apparently because almost no Americans speak English as well as the Saudi ambassador to the US.

There's a lot of truth to this one. No one with a functioning brain particle or three is happy with our continued good relations with Saudi Arabia -- although Riyadh is coming around a bit and relations are not as cozy as they once were. Yet Bill seeks to sort me in with the White House Saudi appeasers? Wrong.

We've established that "Axis of Evil" doesn't really mean "Axis of Evil." More like "Axis of Naughtiness" (unless you have nukes, in which case we probably won't call you anything at all any more).

Wrong. One down (sometime in 7-9 weeks) and two to go. The one best solved by war will have been solved by war. The one best left to internal revolt will be (ahem) revolting. The one that needs to be managed will still be being managed. War in Iraq isn't desirable (no war is) -- but it is necessary. Bill here seems to make a mistake similar to the anti-war loons who argue that if we need to invade Iraq then we need to invade North Korea, Iran, Rwanda, France, and Berkeley.

We've established that even if we should by some chance happen to invade Iraq and topple Saddam, we will still have to get permission from a laundry list of international organizations and nations to pursue the War on Terror any further.

Wrong. We won't invade Iraq "by some chance." Hitler didn't stumble into Poland by mistake, nor will 3rd ACR race up the Tigris just to see what's on the other side. And what is this laundry list? There's the UN, and. . .um, help me out here. NATO? Nope, they already invoked Article V. The OAS? Don't recall ever asking them much. Microsoft? Kissinger Associates?

We've established that the entire notion of "rope-a-dope" was ludicrous in the first place. The whole point of the supposed strategy was to so confuse Saddam Hussein that he wouldn't be prepared when our might military fist struck him (in, presumably, complete surprise). In fact, everybody from Saddam's janitor on up will know when the US finally lumbers into action - if it ever does.

Wrong. Rope-a-Dope (for which I've already apologized) originally applied to Arafat -- then it just grew. And what's this about the US military lumbering into action? Whatever this next operation ends up being called, it'll make Desert Storm/Saber look like it was done in slow-motion. Regardless, if Saddam is half as confused about Bush's intentions as Bill seems to be, then it's working just fine.

We've established that we will kiss the Arafatian ass, and prevent the Israelis from whipping same, although we will send spine-tingling frowns in Yassir's direction, all in the name of creating "support" in an Arab world that hates us, for our always coming, never arriving Iraq attack.

Wrong. Who is this Arafat person of whom Bill speaks? Even news junky that I am, I sure don't see him much anymore. Sure, I'd prefer him dead -- but apparently Israel isn't yet ready to take that step. And, frankly, if keeping him oh-so-nominally in charge a while longer makes things easier for us, then I suppose it's best he keeps sucking air.

Here's the second graf, saved for last:

Which means there is at least some chance that those who unswervingly predicted such an attack, especially the "rope-a-dopers" will have the same chance as a stopped clock of being right - and for the same reason.

This site's first "unswerving" prediction was that war would not start before August or September. Back in July, I stated (in the Drinks) that any guess would be merely a guess. Things looked close to a go in October, but deployments, weapons production (we'd still like more JDAMs and cruise missiles), and domestic politics didn't add up to war.

But now as various reports come in, it becomes obvious that barring a Baghdad coup, the war -- already started -- will begin in earnest sometime shortly after the New Year. February 1, 1pm EST, is my best guess. Could be sooner, could be later, although I'd guess no later than mid-April.

In any case, even if Bill's stopped watch analogy is correct, it's still arguably better than being wrong the entire time, and for mostly the wrong reasons.

Comments

You tell 'em Steve. I was going to give it a go, but didn't have the time last night. You undoubtedly did it better anyway. Of course, we are all just talking out of our asses anyway, since everybody knows that revealing troop movements and tactics would put the lives of our servicemen in danger. Right?

Until there is some evidence to the contrary, I will remain in the "things are moving at exactly the right pace, or close enough" camp.

Posted by: Jeff Brokaw at December 20, 2002 05:21 AM

Yes, indeed, I've been "wrong" the whole time. I must have missed Saddam's fall, Arafat's fall, the Palestinian reformation, the Iranian government collapse, the conversion of Syria to anti-terror, the destruction of al-Qaeda, and all the other triumphs you cite to "show me," Stephen.

Face it. You have no more justification for your claims than I do, in fact, less: I can point to facts. You only point to what you hope will happen, and try to pass that hope off as facts.


Posted by: Bill Quick at December 20, 2002 08:43 AM

VodkaPundit, thank you! The foaming at the mouth some blogs and blog posters have been doing is about as strategically correct at Hitler's invasion of the USSR. I'll admit though, it is damn entertaining. Some people will not be happy until we have US troops in every capital from Beirut to Tehran.

Posted by: BJW at December 20, 2002 08:59 AM

I'm seeing a number of bloggers reprot friends getting called up, in ones and twos. The call up is on, just quietly and slowly. The NY Times will notice when their reporter in Bagdad answers a knock on the door and it's a polite trooper from the 101st, asking if he needs anything.

Patience is a virgin, as Archie Bunker used to say. I believe that Iraq is the first domino, Iran may be next. Saudi is on the list, but until Iraq is available for bases, we'll make nice to them. I like the measured way things have gone, so far. I hope it means that planning is for the long term, not that confusion is causing delays.

New moon's for Badgdad are around Jan 7 and Feb 6. I bet on Jan 7, because Bush has announced a trip abroad for that week.

Posted by: Chuck at December 20, 2002 09:34 AM

Actually, the new moons will be on January 2 and February 1. Blix is supposed to give his report to the U.N. on January 27th. Things will happen quickly after that. Look for the ground war to start in the last couple of days of January.

Posted by: BarCodeKing at December 20, 2002 10:02 AM

Yes, Bill -- it takes a lot of courage to stand in the noonday sun and gripe until dusk about lousy view of the moon.

Posted by: Stephen Green at December 20, 2002 10:09 AM

I don't know if you're right VP, but you have been fairly consistent in your opinions all along. A stopped clock may only be right twice a day but a clock with an hour hand that flails around in different directions depending upon its mood is usually always wrong. Hang in there.

Posted by: Bill at December 20, 2002 10:59 AM

Ooh, bitchfight! I've got ten on Vodkaboy.

Posted by: Sekimori at December 20, 2002 11:30 AM

"... Qualms about the ability of the Bush Administration in such matters should vanish too, but won't.

The Administration's decision concerning UN weapons inspections should be viewed in light of this demonstrated competence ..."

Posted by: Tom Holsinger at December 20, 2002 11:39 AM

I see good points on both sides. I hope you're right but damn, I'm getting tired of waiting and waiting for something to happen. I'm getting tired of all the sabre rattling and the sucking up to the U.N. and the Saudis. If there has to be a war get it over with already!

Posted by: Lynn at December 20, 2002 12:19 PM

Touche! Now, question. Is there a shortage of rude, insufferable, Randian bloggers out there to dialogue with? I need some explanation as to why anyone would decide to sit thru half a dozen popups to put up with the insults and vanity that is Dailypundit.

Posted by: Lloyd at December 20, 2002 01:10 PM

Hey!,put me down as one of the " people will not be happy until we have US troops in every capital from Beirut to Tehran."

actually, Id expand the borders to morocco to malaysia, but why quibble.


oh - and a 10 spot on the vodka-miester.

Posted by: Frank Martin at December 20, 2002 02:35 PM

Jeezeus Bill, give us time. I know, we've only deposed one nation's government since 9/11, but making these arrangements take time. What are you in such a hurry for? Think we'll lose the rental on the hall if we're not in Baghdad by New Years?

Anyway, Bush just canceled his January trip to Africa, so I suspect something's come up that's going to take up more of his time, knowwhatImean?

Posted by: Bill Peschel at December 20, 2002 06:24 PM

Fast is better then soon. If we have to wait for the public stage of the war a little longer so that it will be swift and decisive when it does come, then I say take your time.

That being said, I'm betting troops will hit the sand before the first of Febuary.

Posted by: Sean Kirby at December 20, 2002 08:57 PM

I would no longer hazard a guess on when we go into Iraq, but have no doubt that it will happen and when it does will be done in a manner to appear both overwhelming and with as little collateral damage as possible. The 'arab street' will have as little real grist for their mill as they did over Afganistan.

I have hoped several times that indications were for imminent invasion and been disappointed each time. But I have always preferred that we do this RIGHT, and am still confident that that is also the administration view. Say what you will about the appearance of toadying to the UN, but appearances are certainly just as supportive of the US having gotten all it wants or needs from the UN in the Iraqi report of a week or so ago.

The man in the white house said at the start to be prepared for a long war. We have the upper hand militarily and do whether WMD are used by the other side or not. If WMD are used againnst our population, that does not change the militray equation. Fighting each battle in this war decisively and swiftly in execution is preferable than fighting each battle on anyone else's terms but ours just to do so sonner.

Posted by: Bob Leahy at December 21, 2002 09:23 AM

Bill is a sweetie but he needs to change his meds, get a job, get some new topics for his blog, or get out more.

Posted by: Yehudit at December 21, 2002 06:57 PM

Delighted to see you compare Bush's invasion of Iraq to Hitler's invasion of Poland. Birds of a feather.

Posted by: Mike at December 22, 2002 10:31 PM



Navigation

MDS - Give Until It Hurts

Terror War Scorecard
Watching America

50 Things
American Cancer Ablation Center
Buy VodkaPundit Stuff



VodkaPundit on Amazon
Vodkapundit for PDA (AvantGo)
Vodkapundit for PDA (Not)
VodkaPundit XML or RDF

Search



Advanced Search



Last Call

The Author

"He’s always mentioning food and drink I have never heard of, yet I am still compelled to read."
-Steven Taylor

Absolut Link

Blog-Iran

Top Shelf

Ann Althouse
Baldilocks
Austin Bay
Belmont Club
Tim Blair
Chequer Board
Command Post
Counterterrorism Blog
Day By Day
Daniel Drezner
From the Bleachers
Hit & Run
INDC Journal
Iraq the Model
James Joyner
James Lileks
Megan McArdle
OPFOR
Protein Wisdom
Glenn Reynolds
Bill Roggio
ScreedBlog
Roger L. Simon
Rob Smith
Steven Taylor
Venomous Kate
Matt Welch
Winds of Change
Michael Yon
Yuppies of Zion


The Usual

Across the Atlantic
Anticipatory Retaliation
Atlas Shrugs
The Black Republican
Blogcritics
Captain's Quarters
Phil Carter
The Daily Ablution
Andrew Ian Dodge
Eye on the Left
Mike Hendrix
In From the Cold
Charles Johnson
Kathy Kinsley
A Likely Story
Brian Linse
Jay Manifold
Neocon News
Frank Martin
QandO
Bill Quick
Rantburg
John Scalzi
Sine Qua Non Pundit
Team Stryker
Mac Thomason
Michael Totten
Jesse Walker
Dr. Weevil
Bill Whittle
Chief Wiggles
Sissy Willis
Cathy Young

Micro Brews

American Realpolitik
Black Five
Boots and Sabers
Capitalist Lion
Scott Chaffin
John Cole
Coming Anarchy
Bo Cowgill
Dr. Frank's Blogs of War
Donklephant
Ed Driscoll
Kim du Toit
Glenn Frazier
Joe Gandleman
The Gay Patriot
Godless Capitalist
Bill Hobbs
John Hudock
Frank J.'s IMAO
Joanne Jacobs
Brothers Judd
Junk Yard Blog
Major John
Davids Medienkritik
Mr. Misha's Rottweiler
Only Baseball Matters
Matt Moore
Jack O'Toole
Peaktalk
Eric S. Raymond
Red Sugar
Resurrection Song
Robin Roberts
Andrea See
Mathew Sheren
Spoons Experience
DC Thornton
Yankee Station

Gin & Tonic

Albion's Seedlings
American Digest
Radley Balko
Paul Berger
Robert Bidinotto
Blogometer
BusinessPundit
The Chicago Boyz
Classical Values
Conrad the Expat
Susanna Cornett
Dave Cullen
England's Sword
Dean Esmay
Horsefeathers
Jessica's Well
Alex Knapp
Legal Spin
Light of Reason
The Lipstick Republican
Moxie
OxBlog
Suman Palit
Punch the Bag
The Pursuit of Happiness
Samizdata
Sofia Sideshow
Natalie Solent
Texas Best Grok
Professor Michael Tinkler
Cal Ulmann
Brothers Volokh

Cosmopolitans

Justene Adamec
Stephen Bainbridge
La Shawn Barber
Moira Breen
Sasha Castel
Colorado Psycho
Clayton Cramer
CrossingWallStreet
Martin Devon
Kevin Drum
Henry Hanks
Diana Hsieh
Jeff Jarvis
Jessica
Sean Kirby
Liberty Belles
Rachel Lucas
Jeralyn Merritt
Philip Murphy
Oasis of Sanity
Andrew Olmsted
Walter Olson
Michael Parker
Popped Culture
Porphyrogenitus
Fritz Schrank
Donald Sensing
Elizabeth Spiers
The Swanky Conservative
Two Blowhards
Michael Ubaldi
Alexandra von Maltzan
Will Wilkinson

Rum & Coke

The Argument Clinic
Below the Beltway
The Bitch Girls
Jay Caruso
Dog's Life
Fire On The Mountain
GeckoBlue
GZ Expat
David Hogberg
John Hawkins
Horologium
Kris Lofgren
Floyd McWilliams
John Moore
PhotoDude
Robyn Pollman
Chas Rich
Silflay Hraka
Geitner Simmons
Skippy
Dave Tepper
Transterrestrial Musings
Trying to Grok
Walter in Denver
Don Watkins
Weekend Pundit
Joshua Zader

Tequila Shots

Todd A
N.Z. Bear
Begging to Differ
David MSC
Gary Farber
Highered Intelligence
Isntapundit
Jonathan and Wanda
Ken Layne
Nick Marsala
Dan Michalski
Sheila O'Malley
Dawn Olsen
Tony Pierce
Raving Atheist
Matt Traylor
Sekimori
WMET Blog
World Wide Rant

Manischewitz

Moe Freedman
Tal G. in Jerusalem
IsraPundit
Kesher Talk
Mike Silverman
Allison Kaplan Sommer
Meryl Yourish

Boozehounds

Allah Is In the House
Dave Barry's Blog
The Daily Sedative
Doug Dever
Daniel Frank
Scott Ott
Large American Penis
Short Strange Trip
Ten Fingers, Six Strings
Jim Treacher

Cyanide-Laced Kool-Aid

Laurence Simon

Sex on the Beach

Body in Mind
ErosBlog
Eroticalee
Just One Bite
Fred Lapides
New York Hotties
SLA
Unablogger

Kegger

Ben Domenech
HokiePundit
Hoosier Review
John Tabin
Nicholas West

Fosters

Duck Season
Mike Jericho
John Ray
Bernard Slattery
Whacking Day

Molson

Banana Counting Monkey
Daimnation!
Dispatches
David Janes
Western Standard

Left Wing Bar Nuts

Ted Barlow
Joshua Marshall
Dan Perkins

Cover Charge

Eric Alterman
Dave Barry
Barone Blog
Austin Bay
Jay Bryant
C-Log
Campaign Desk
Steve Chapman
Dallas News Blog
Matt Drudge
Google News
Nat Henthoff
Hugh Hewitt
Mickey Kaus
Howard Kurtz
National Review Online
The New Republic
The New York Times
Newsweek
OpinionJournal
Kathleen Parker
Daniel Pipes
Virginia Postrel
Roll Call
Larry Sabato
Linda Seebach
Slate
Sploid
Mark Steyn
StrategyPage
Andrew Sullivan
Tapped
Tech Central Station
Time
US News & World Report
David Warren
The Washington Post

Under the Table

American Times
Angry Left
Asparagirl
BitchPundit
John Braue
Shiloh Bucher
Carthaginian Peace
Lorenzo Cortes
Steven Den Beste
Fevered Rants
Scott "Funkadelic" Ganz
Juan Gato
Happy Fun Pundit
Andrea Harris
Scott Koenig
Brink Lindsey
Sue Lizano
Kieran Lyons
Mean Mr. Mustard
Meeshness
Punditwatch
Dennis Rogers
Jim Ryan
Spinsanity
Unremitting Verse
Norah Vincent
Tony Woodlief

Archives

Powered by Movable TypeDesign by Sekimori